Opening Day Assignments Raise Concerns For Druw Jones, Elijah Green — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America (2024)

But more often, when a top 10 pick like Josh Vitters (third pick in 2007), Donovan Tate (third pick in 2009), Bubba Starling (fifth pick, 2011) or Alex Jackson (sixth pick in 2014) gets sent to Low-A to begin their second full season, it’s an early warning sign that their hitting ability hasn’t lived up to pre-draft expectations.

Of the 140 high school position players who signed who were drafted in the top 30 picks between 2000 and 2019, 48 of them (34.3%) were sent to Low-A (or held back in extended spring) to start their second full pro season.

Considering it’s more than one in three prep first-round picks, it doesn’t seem all that unusual. The more common assignment is being sent to High-A, with 75 (53.6%) doing that. The standouts are those who were sent to Double-A. Only 17 (12.1%) were deemed that advanced.

It’s just one data point, and it’s one that doesn’t make any allowances for injuries, different development paces or anything else. But if you have just this one piece of information, it offers a very clear snapshot of a prospect’s long-term potential. The outcomes of those players are dramatically different depending on where they are sent.

Players sent to Double-A are ticketed for stardom. Players who begin at High-A are a much more mixed bag. There are plenty of stars, a solid number of solid big leaguers and a number of players who never reach the majors.

But for first-round prep hitters who begin their second full pro season in Low-A, they are more likely to finish with a sub 0.0 career WAR or never reach the majors than they are to have a significant MLB career.

The 17 who started in Double-A two years after they were drafted included Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, B.J. Upton and Bobby Witt Jr.

Every one of those 17 made the majors. The least productive of the group were still big leaguers with lengthy careers. Sergio Santos eventually converted to pitching and pitched as a reliever, while Delmon Young finished second in Rookie of the Year voting as a 21-year-old, but was out of the majors by the time he was 30. Them, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus are the worst performers from a group filled with perennial all-stars.

Among the High-A group, there are a number of stars. Carlos Correa, Christian Yelich, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Byron Buxton, Corey Seager, Kyle Tucker and Francisco Lindor all were players who were on the standard development track when their second full pro season began.

But there also are plenty of these players who go on to have up-and-down MLB careers or didn’t make it. Of the 75 players who started at High-A, 13 have posted 15+ bWAR for their career. Four had 10-15 bWAR, 30 had 0.0-9.9 bWAR. That left 30 who either didn’t post a 0.0 WAR or didn’t reach the majors.

When you get to the group sent to Low-A, the track record becomes much more dire. The long-term success stories are Nimmo, Hicks and Grichuk. Those are the three of 48 who have 10+ career bWAR. Delino DeShields Jr. had a few solid seasons after being a Rule 5 pick. Tyler Stephenson has had a solid career so far and is mid-career. Alex Kirilloff and Will Benson are early in their pro careers and could reach that level.

Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe looks set to become a success story as well, but that one comes with a caveat. As a 2019 draftee, Volpe didn’t get to play in 2020 because of the cancellation of the MiLB season because of the coronavirus pandemic. That may have played a role in him beginning the 2021 season at Low-A.

Of the 48 sent to Low-A, 20 who have not reached the majors and another 14 have posted negative career WAR.

It’s too early to make any career comparisons for prep first-round position players taken since 2020, but here is a look at where those players were sent to begin their second full pro season. Much like the 2019 draft class, the 2020 class data could be affected by the lost 2020 covid season, which meant that players didn’t make their pro debut until 2021.